Please see the latest Weekly Macro Themes report from the Topdown Charts institutional service below.

Weekly Macro Themes - 17 April 2026 - Volume 11, Edition 10

Weekly Macro Themes V11e10 17042026

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Please see the latest Weekly Macro Themes report from the Topdown Charts institutional service below.

Weekly Macro Themes - 10 April 2026 - Volume 11, Edition 9

Weekly Macro Themes V11e09 10042026

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Topdown Charts Quarterly Strategy Pack Q2 2026

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The pack covers the key themes/charts on the outlook for 2026:
-the macro outlook (policy, inflation, growth, risk scenarios)
-core asset allocation views (growth vs defense, major asset classes)
-selected specific ideas (within/across asset classes and sectors/regions)

In ad…

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Please see the latest Weekly Macro Themes report from the Topdown Charts institutional service below + an update on the Entry-Level service further down.

Weekly Macro Themes - 27 March 2026 - Volume 11, Edition 8

Weekly Macro Themes V11e08 27032026

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Topics & Takeaways

1. Monetary Policy Pulse: given lack of underlying inflation p…

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Please see the latest Weekly Macro Themes report from the Topdown Charts institutional service below + an update on the Entry-Level service further down.

Weekly Macro Themes - 20 March 2026 - Volume 11, Edition 7

Weekly Macro Themes V11e07 20032026

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Topics & Takeaways

1. China: remain bullish given cheap valuations, improving mac…

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Please see the latest Weekly Macro Themes report from the Topdown Charts institutional service below + an update on the Entry-Level service further down.

Weekly Macro Themes - 27 February 2026 - Volume 11, Edition 6

Weekly Macro Themes V11e06 13032026

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Topics & Takeaways

1. Commodities: remain bullish commodities given strong tec…

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Specifically, covered in this email is:

• Global data pulse, policy monitor, valuation snapshot

• Global economy and risk outlook

• Core views across asset classes (short + medium term)

• Capital market assumptions up…

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First one shows Global ex-US Small Value (basically a combination of what have been the 3 most out of favor parts of global equities: global ex-US, small caps, and value stocks).

The second one shows the other side of the coin — US Large Growth (what has been the hottest part of global equities).

The chart on the left is looking very bullish after being messy, somewhat bearish, and certainly lagging behind for a number of years.

The chart on the right is looking distinctly bearish after having been on a dream bull run since 2009.

Then add in a little more context: global/small/value are ticking up from record low relative valuations vs US/large/growth — what I call the “relative value trinity“ of global equities.

This is a classic change in stockmarket leadership, and something I’ve been terming bullish rotation. I thought we would see this happen at some point, but I wasn’t sure if it would end up being bullish rotation (where global/small/value start putting in good absolute and relative performance, and catching up) or bearish rotation (where both fall, but one falls less than the other, and US growth catches-down).

As such, I’d call this pair of charts collectively bullish in that the “relative value trinity” group (global/small/value) are picking up the slack from lackluster US large growth/tech.

But at the same time, you take one glance at the chart on the right and that doesn’t look too good …and in fact it shares many similarities with 2021/22.

That’s what we call bullearish.

Key point: Global/Small/Value are leading the charge in global equities.

Rotation Stations…

The chart below was featured in the latest edition of The Weekly ChartStorm and echoes the themes outlined above.

Within the US we are seeing the bull market broaden out to areas of the market that had previously lagged behind such as small caps, cyclicals, value stocks as the equal-weighted version of the S&P500 starts to outperform (rather than just the heavy-weights of US big tech hogging it all).

With global growth on the rebound into 2026, commodity prices ramping-up, and fiscal/monetary tailwinds pairing-up with the positive real-world flow-on effects of the AI boom, this is not just a technical rotation but a fundamental rotation (there is good reason for stocks ex-tech to rally this time).

And yet, this is a huge development technically: consider how stretched from trend the black line in the chart below had become — look for a massive trend-reversion in the coming months and years.

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More Rotation!

A key sub-component of global equities rotation has been the massive inflection point in Emerging Markets.

Emerging vs Developed market relative performance (black line) is turning up following a decade+ relative bear market, and the Emerging Markets index (blue line) is breaking out in absolute terms after putting in a Brobdingnagian base.

Even if you’re not a fan of technicals, you’d have to admit that in this brief email we’ve covered what are likely to be some of the most significant developments in global equities this decade (and for reference, the fundamentals/value backdrop do indeed support the technicals assessment).

More updates to come! [Follow + to stay on top of the emerging risks + opportunities as this unfolds…]

For more Charts and Market insights be sure to head over and check out my other service, The Weekly ChartStorm

Check out The Weekly ChartStorm

For more info on The Weekly ChartStorm service see:

• Report Samples

• Subscriber Reviews

• Benefits of Subscribing

I hope to see you also join us over on The Weekly ChartStorm for some of the best weekly insights on the Stockmarket (+related issues).

Thanks for your interest.

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas

Founder & Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm
and Head of Research at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
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See Also — for more updates on markets…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook

By Callum Thomas

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Specifically, 80% of the 70 countries we track are up at least 20% off their 52-week low (with +20% being a common benchmark/trigger for “bull market“).

This is a very positive sign.

The below chart shows this peculiar breadth indicator over time (the red line), and what’s interesting is a few things…

First, this indicator has rarely been above 50% over the past couple decades (yet, it was steadily north of 50% during the 2000’s global equity bull market).

Second, when this indicator surges like this it is typically a very good sign — for instance, see: 2003, 2009, 2020 (the start of new global equity bull markets).

Third, by contrast the time to be concerned is when this indicator peaks and rolls over (no signs of that at the moment).

In essence, this is an unequivocally bullish chart: about as bullish as it gets.

And it lines up with the macro/fundamental developments I’ve been tracking e.g. as documented a couple of weeks ago: Global Growth Reacceleration + Bullish Outlook for EM + Bullish Commodities Outlook.

As I quipped the other day, “there’s always a bull market somewhere, and in this case it’s everywhere!“

Key point:  There’s a global bull market in bull markets.

But there are some divergences…

The following two charts were featured in the Latest Edition of the Weekly ChartStorm, and I think they perfectly capture some major Stockmarket themes in play right now — both on the bullish side (but also on the risk-front).

SPXEW vs NDX: the equal-weighted S&P500 is pushing higher, and the Nasdaq 100 is stuck in consolidation mode (as tech is in a bit of a stalemate; awaiting cue on next steps). Basically, the bullish rotation theme remains in play [i.e. the rest of the market is finally having its day in the sun as tech takes a back seat].

Global Tech vs US Tech: similarly, the chart below shows how rest-of-world tech continues to push higher (new highs last week), while US tech pretty much looks to be in a downtrend at this point.

The divergence here and above still has a bullish/constructive hue to it in that you have the rest of the market + global looking good, doing well in absolute terms (for good reason) —and taking up the slack from softer tech performance.

Again, it looks like bullish rotation, yet I think it’s important to remain vigilant on tech as a larger breakdown there would test my optimistic bullish rotation interpretation…

>>> Click through for the Full Report…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 February 2026

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm…

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2 months ago · 27 likes · 6 comments · Callum Thomas

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And another thing…

To illustrate that last point, Tech Sector CDS pricing has been trending higher and higher… while tech sector stocks have been drifting lower. This is enough to keep us on edge on Tech, especially as the downside risks are mounting.

For more Charts and Market insights be sure to head over to my other service, The Weekly ChartStorm

Check out The Weekly ChartStorm

For more info on The Weekly ChartStorm service see:

• Report Samples

• Subscriber Reviews

• Benefits of Subscribing

I hope to see you also join us over on The Weekly ChartStorm for some of the best weekly insights on the Stockmarket (+related issues).

Thanks for your interest.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas

Head of Research at Topdown Charts
+Founder & Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

See Also — for more updates on markets…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook

By Callum Thomas

.

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Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after going through what has been a major relative bear market.

But in particular, the following conditions make for a contrarian bullish (relative) setup for Defensives:

• Defensives’ relative value indicator reached similar levels to that seen at the peak of the dot com bubble (Defensives are extreme cheap vs the index).

• Investor allocations to defensives are ticking up from record lows.

• The market cap weight of defensives reached an all-time low late last year.

• The relative price (black line in the chart below) has seen an extended and extreme period of underperformance.

• And on the flipside, US (tech) stocks have likewise seen a number of extreme readings on sentiment, valuations, and allocations in the opposite direction (i.e. overall stock market downside risk is higher than we’ve seen since 2000 due to the key growth engine of tech stocks being overheated and looking somewhat burnt out lately).

Interestingly, this bullish outlook for defensive stocks is actually bearish for the stockmarket as a whole…

To be clear, when I say bullish outlook for defensives, I mean in relative terms — i.e. you expect defensive stocks to fall less or at best hold ground while the rest of the market falls more.

In this sense, defensives are interesting to keep tabs on both as a source of information on the market cycle (they fare relatively well in a downturn and lag behind in an upturn), but also as a sort of alternative hedge or portfolio risk dampener.

So seeing the defensives’ relative performance line ticking up from extreme lows (and the contrarian bullish setup for defensives I just outlined) tells us we need to pay closer attention to risk management and smart diversification right now.

Key point:  Defensives are looking good (that’s bad).

Bonus Chart 1 — Market Cap Weight

As noted above, defensives’ market cap weight reached an all-time low last year, since then they have ticked up as tech has ticked down off record highs.

Again, this tells us about the state of the market cycle (note where previous extremes were, and how fleeting they ended up being — and how they ultimately resolved).

But it also tells us important investment strategy takeaways such as how passive index investors are now heavily exposed to tech and on the contrary, also have historically low exposure to the diversifying and risk-dampening attributes of defensives.

So this is a timely prompt to consider both the big picture macro-market outlook, but also the pragmatic implications for portfolio strategy (e.g. is this the right sector mix for equity exposure? should you look into smart diversification and up-weighting risk dampeners?)

NOTE: on the topic of Tech Stocks, I strongly encourage you to check out this recent deep-dive on the Outlook for Tech Stocks that we published on

The Weekly ChartStorm

Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks

Here’s a quick “Off-Topic ChartStorm” on (US) Tech Stocks…

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2 months ago · 47 likes · 9 comments · Callum Thomas

Bonus Chart 2 — Earnings Weight

For completeness, here’s the earnings version of the market cap chart above, this one shows the earnings weight (or earnings % share) of each of those big 3 sector groups.

We can see that tech boasts the biggest earnings share, but also that cross-checking it against the chart above we can also see that the market has overshot.

Meanwhile, the history of defensives’ earnings weight tells us exactly why they are called defensives — because in times of turmoil and downturn, defensives’ earnings just keep plodding along and become a larger share of the index as tech and cyclicals ex-tech see earnings crunched by crisis, sector boom/bust cycles, and recessions.

So it pays to be cycle aware then think about equity exposure, stock market ups and downs, and overall asset allocation.

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to this [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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What do you think?

Which set of sectors are best placed over the next year or so?

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets update: equities, fixed income, FX

• Defensive Stocks: the downside of the upside in defensives

• Tech Stock Top: look at the risks, bull/bear scenarios, outlook

• Macro Radar: key events, market levels, research agenda

• Ideas Inventory: listing of current live ideas/views

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional research service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

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(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

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The gloomy macro clouds of the past few years are starting to lift.

Once weak and lagging parts of macro and markets are starting to stir,

and a major macro theme I’ve been tracking is showing increasing signs of finally kicking full-swing into gear — today’s chart lays it out simply.

Basically what we’re looking at here is a procession of policy pivots from big easing in 2020/21, panic tightening in 2022/23, and then back to easing in 2024/25.

The result?

Major monetary tailwinds are kicking-in right now.

And we are seeing this having a clear positive impact on some of the key areas of the global economy that have previously been in deep stagnation: manufacturing, global trade, commodities, heavy industry.

Real world, real growth, traditional cyclical parts of the economy are waking up from slumber (and seemingly taking back charge in relative stock market performance after a decade+ of software and tech domination).

If this is true, and there is plenty of emerging evidence (such as the chart below), then we are likely to see a robust and durable rally in commodities, emerging markets, and traditional cyclicals. The downside is that tech, crypto, and fixed income likely take a back seat in this type of macro environment (and that’s precisely what we’ve seen playing out over the past few months).

So it’s key development, a key theme, with major implications for investors — and something we’re tracking closely (stay tuned for more updates!).

Key point:  Global growth reacceleration is underway.

Bonus Chart — Confidence Revival

With all I discussed above I couldn’t keep this one to myself!

This chart tracks the average z-score (i.e. normalizing each series in terms of where it is tracking vs long-term average so it can be put in common comparable terms) across every country that has consumer and business confidence surveys.

In other words, it is a global barometer of economic confidence.

The first thing to note is how out there in the real world, consumers and businesses have been having a tough time in recent years — while there was no official recession, with the inflation shock, rise in rates, and exhausting (geo)political news/noise flow, we’ve basically been through a confidence recession [albeit others call it a k-shaped economy, stealth recession, vibecession, etc!].

And now, as I noted earlier, the clouds are lifting…

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Poll: what’s your take?

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to this [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Global Equity Technicals: rotation is the key word!

• Macro Radar: key events and technical levels to watch

• Asset Allocation Review: link to monthly pack

• Ideas Inventory: latest listing of live ideas/views/recommendations

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Read more

Specifically, covered in this email is:

• Global data pulse, policy monitor, valuation snapshot

• Global economy and risk outlook

• Core views across asset classes (short + medium term)

• Capital market assumptions up…

Read more

Read more

The composite positioning indicator below seems to suggests so.

Everyone hates bonds right now.

And fair enough — there are several obvious reasons to hate them.

Returns have been terrible, inflation risk is lurking around the corner, fiscal concerns are running high, and political/governance risk for the US is looking and feeling more like what you’d expect in emerging markets.

But all of this is obvious and well known, which means it’s time to think.

As the old Mark Twain quote goes, "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."

When you take an objective and quantitative look at treasuries (I am referring to longer-term) a couple of things stand out.

Valuations are cheap.

Sentiment/allocations/positioning are deeply consensus bearish.

And support seems to be holding…

To be fair, there are several key and credible risks to treasuries e.g. if we see stronger growth and commodity prices this year (my base case) that’s going to be a headwind for fixed income as bond yields would see upward pressure in that scenario.

But if we see recession and deflation, or just growth scare, or even stock bear — or perhaps a pivot in policy by the Fed to more aggressively lean on mortgage rates by bringing short-term rates down and maybe even leaning on long-term bond yields…. those are a couple of pathways to better returns from the unloved undervalued and underestimated treasuries bucket in fixed income.

Key point:  US Treasuries are unloved and undervalued.

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Further Macro-Market Insights

Here’s a few recent charts from my free “Off-Topic ChartStorm“ series, be sure to check out the original posts for full context and conclusions (+more charts!).

Off-Topic ChartStorm - US Treasuries

“Overall, it’s clear the bond bear market has laid lasting damage to sentiment on bonds. Arguably this has helped created a bullish contrarian setup in waiting. But historical and global perspective suggests some caution, and we await price and macro confirmation as upside catalysts for the bond bull breakout…“ [Full Story + Charts]

As touched on above, we’ve just been through (and technically still are in) one of the worst bond bear markets in recorded history. This is highly important because some of the best opportunities come from the biggest bear markets.

Free Report on US Treasuries

Fixed Income markets in Focus

There’s several key trends, themes, and issues for asset allocators to be considering on the fixed income front (e.g. Japan, credit spreads, volatility, risk, and expected returns), this free report elucidates things with clear commentary and charts. [Full Story + Charts]

But specifically, the chart below lays out how the continued drift higher in the long-term rate of inflation in the USA might make it hard for treasuries to sustainably rally in lieu of a deflationary downturn or crisis/shock. Higher-for-longer risk is non-trivial, especially given the next chart…

Free Report on Fixed Income markets

Bullish Commodities Outlook

There’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks + commodity prices themselves). [Full Story + Charts]

One issue with this though in relation to today’s chart — higher commodity prices and stronger growth = higher inflation = higher-for-longer risk lingers for longer… so it does complicate the outlook for bonds.

Free Report on Commodities Outlook

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Market Themes: commodities, EMFX, and LatAm equities turning up

• Treasuries: examining the bull case and matters of timing

• Inflation Risk: charts and thoughts on inflation risk prospects

• Stocks vs Bonds: weighing the strategic probabilities vs tactical aspects

• Oil/Energy Stocks: upsides vs downsides, emerging opportunity

• Japan Equities: comprehensive look at the bull case in Japan

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Read more

Then it broke out —but they said it was still in a downtrend.

Now it’s broken that downtrend line.

And there are still several reasons to expect further upside.

Here’s why I’m bullish on Chinese stocks:

• Strong Technicals: as alluded to, we’ve seen 3 key breakouts (through the 200-day average, through long-term overhead resistance, and through the down trendline joining the last two major peaks).

• Stock/Bond Ratio: we’ve also seen a key breakout in an indicator almost no-one else watches; the Chinese stock/bond ratio (important risk-on signal).

• Cheap Valuations: Chinese stocks are reasonable vs history, cheap vs peers, and cheap vs bonds (very high equity risk premium).

• Macro Tailwinds: we’ve seen a steady drift lower in interest rates, incremental stimulus measures, and now a tentative upturn in the PMIs from quasi-recessionary levels.

• Sentiment: we’re seeing strong retail participation (likely an element of rotation out of languishing property and overheated gold, into stocks), earnings revisions momentum indicators are surging from previous pessimism, and there’s still an air of skepticism among global investors.

So it’s a case of good price and flows momentum, scope for upside in valuations, macro updrafts, and a steady changing of minds as price moves sentiment.

All this adds up to a bullish picture with room to run. It’s also entirely consistent with the bullish outlook for commodities and emerging markets.

Key point:  There’s room to run in China A-Shares’ triple-breakout.

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Further Macro-Market Insights (free to access)

Here’s a few recent charts from my “Off-Topic ChartStorm“ series, be sure to check out the original posts for full context and conclusions.

Bullish Commodities Outlook

There’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks + commodity prices themselves). [Full Story + Charts]

Bullish on Emerging Market Equities

There’s also a growing body of evidence to suggest that we are going through a major bullish inflection point for emerging market equities. Looking at technical developments, macro-fundamentals, behavioral aspects, and other factors — there’s a lot that could go right for EM Equities. [Full Story + Charts]

Calm Before the storm in Fixed Income

There’s a growing set of risks (and opportunities) in fixed income markets. From the paradigm shift in Japan, higher for longer risk in the USA, and changing market structure, to collapsing volatility and tight spreads, there’s several key charts and takeaways investors need to consider here. [Full Story + Charts]

Subscribe now

Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: global equities, fixed income, FX commodities

• European Equities: update on sentiment and technicals

• US Dollar Outlook: outlining the bear (vs bull) case

• Emerging Markets: a comprehensive look at the key charts, indicators

• China: key charts and indicators for Chinese stocks

• Commodities: clear view on the bullish outlook

• Commodity Equities: bullish on the basket

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

Other Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional research service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]