First one shows Global ex-US Small Value (basically a combination of what have been the 3 most out of favor parts of global equities: global ex-US, small caps, and value stocks).

The second one shows the other side of the coin — US Large Growth (what has been the hottest part of global equities).

The chart on the left is looking very bullish after being messy, somewhat bearish, and certainly lagging behind for a number of years.

The chart on the right is looking distinctly bearish after having been on a dream bull run since 2009.

Then add in a little more context: global/small/value are ticking up from record low relative valuations vs US/large/growth — what I call the “relative value trinity“ of global equities.

This is a classic change in stockmarket leadership, and something I’ve been terming bullish rotation. I thought we would see this happen at some point, but I wasn’t sure if it would end up being bullish rotation (where global/small/value start putting in good absolute and relative performance, and catching up) or bearish rotation (where both fall, but one falls less than the other, and US growth catches-down).

As such, I’d call this pair of charts collectively bullish in that the “relative value trinity” group (global/small/value) are picking up the slack from lackluster US large growth/tech.

But at the same time, you take one glance at the chart on the right and that doesn’t look too good …and in fact it shares many similarities with 2021/22.

That’s what we call bullearish.

Key point: Global/Small/Value are leading the charge in global equities.

Rotation Stations…

The chart below was featured in the latest edition of The Weekly ChartStorm and echoes the themes outlined above.

Within the US we are seeing the bull market broaden out to areas of the market that had previously lagged behind such as small caps, cyclicals, value stocks as the equal-weighted version of the S&P500 starts to outperform (rather than just the heavy-weights of US big tech hogging it all).

With global growth on the rebound into 2026, commodity prices ramping-up, and fiscal/monetary tailwinds pairing-up with the positive real-world flow-on effects of the AI boom, this is not just a technical rotation but a fundamental rotation (there is good reason for stocks ex-tech to rally this time).

And yet, this is a huge development technically: consider how stretched from trend the black line in the chart below had become — look for a massive trend-reversion in the coming months and years.

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More Rotation!

A key sub-component of global equities rotation has been the massive inflection point in Emerging Markets.

Emerging vs Developed market relative performance (black line) is turning up following a decade+ relative bear market, and the Emerging Markets index (blue line) is breaking out in absolute terms after putting in a Brobdingnagian base.

Even if you’re not a fan of technicals, you’d have to admit that in this brief email we’ve covered what are likely to be some of the most significant developments in global equities this decade (and for reference, the fundamentals/value backdrop do indeed support the technicals assessment).

More updates to come! [Follow + to stay on top of the emerging risks + opportunities as this unfolds…]

For more Charts and Market insights be sure to head over and check out my other service, The Weekly ChartStorm

Check out The Weekly ChartStorm

For more info on The Weekly ChartStorm service see:

• Report Samples

• Subscriber Reviews

• Benefits of Subscribing

I hope to see you also join us over on The Weekly ChartStorm for some of the best weekly insights on the Stockmarket (+related issues).

Thanks for your interest.

Best wishes,
Callum Thomas

Founder & Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm
and Head of Research at Topdown Charts

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See Also — for more updates on markets…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook

By Callum Thomas

Specifically, 80% of the 70 countries we track are up at least 20% off their 52-week low (with +20% being a common benchmark/trigger for “bull market“).

This is a very positive sign.

The below chart shows this peculiar breadth indicator over time (the red line), and what’s interesting is a few things…

First, this indicator has rarely been above 50% over the past couple decades (yet, it was steadily north of 50% during the 2000’s global equity bull market).

Second, when this indicator surges like this it is typically a very good sign — for instance, see: 2003, 2009, 2020 (the start of new global equity bull markets).

Third, by contrast the time to be concerned is when this indicator peaks and rolls over (no signs of that at the moment).

In essence, this is an unequivocally bullish chart: about as bullish as it gets.

And it lines up with the macro/fundamental developments I’ve been tracking e.g. as documented a couple of weeks ago: Global Growth Reacceleration + Bullish Outlook for EM + Bullish Commodities Outlook.

As I quipped the other day, “there’s always a bull market somewhere, and in this case it’s everywhere!“

Key point:  There’s a global bull market in bull markets.

But there are some divergences…

The following two charts were featured in the Latest Edition of the Weekly ChartStorm, and I think they perfectly capture some major Stockmarket themes in play right now — both on the bullish side (but also on the risk-front).

SPXEW vs NDX: the equal-weighted S&P500 is pushing higher, and the Nasdaq 100 is stuck in consolidation mode (as tech is in a bit of a stalemate; awaiting cue on next steps). Basically, the bullish rotation theme remains in play [i.e. the rest of the market is finally having its day in the sun as tech takes a back seat].

Global Tech vs US Tech: similarly, the chart below shows how rest-of-world tech continues to push higher (new highs last week), while US tech pretty much looks to be in a downtrend at this point.

The divergence here and above still has a bullish/constructive hue to it in that you have the rest of the market + global looking good, doing well in absolute terms (for good reason) —and taking up the slack from softer tech performance.

Again, it looks like bullish rotation, yet I think it’s important to remain vigilant on tech as a larger breakdown there would test my optimistic bullish rotation interpretation…

>>> Click through for the Full Report…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 February 2026

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm…

Read more

3 months ago · 27 likes · 6 comments · Callum Thomas

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And another thing…

To illustrate that last point, Tech Sector CDS pricing has been trending higher and higher… while tech sector stocks have been drifting lower. This is enough to keep us on edge on Tech, especially as the downside risks are mounting.

For more Charts and Market insights be sure to head over to my other service, The Weekly ChartStorm

Check out The Weekly ChartStorm

For more info on The Weekly ChartStorm service see:

• Report Samples

• Subscriber Reviews

• Benefits of Subscribing

I hope to see you also join us over on The Weekly ChartStorm for some of the best weekly insights on the Stockmarket (+related issues).

Thanks for your interest.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas

Head of Research at Topdown Charts
+Founder & Editor of The Weekly ChartStorm

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See Also — for more updates on markets…

The Weekly ChartStorm

Hand picked charts and insights to help you Save Time, uncover Opportunities, and stay on top of the Stockmarket Outlook

By Callum Thomas

.

Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 —after going through what has been a major relative bear market.

But in particular, the following conditions make for a contrarian bullish (relative) setup for Defensives:

• Defensives’ relative value indicator reached similar levels to that seen at the peak of the dot com bubble (Defensives are extreme cheap vs the index).

• Investor allocations to defensives are ticking up from record lows.

• The market cap weight of defensives reached an all-time low late last year.

• The relative price (black line in the chart below) has seen an extended and extreme period of underperformance.

• And on the flipside, US (tech) stocks have likewise seen a number of extreme readings on sentiment, valuations, and allocations in the opposite direction (i.e. overall stock market downside risk is higher than we’ve seen since 2000 due to the key growth engine of tech stocks being overheated and looking somewhat burnt out lately).

Interestingly, this bullish outlook for defensive stocks is actually bearish for the stockmarket as a whole…

To be clear, when I say bullish outlook for defensives, I mean in relative terms — i.e. you expect defensive stocks to fall less or at best hold ground while the rest of the market falls more.

In this sense, defensives are interesting to keep tabs on both as a source of information on the market cycle (they fare relatively well in a downturn and lag behind in an upturn), but also as a sort of alternative hedge or portfolio risk dampener.

So seeing the defensives’ relative performance line ticking up from extreme lows (and the contrarian bullish setup for defensives I just outlined) tells us we need to pay closer attention to risk management and smart diversification right now.

Key point:  Defensives are looking good (that’s bad).

Bonus Chart 1 — Market Cap Weight

As noted above, defensives’ market cap weight reached an all-time low last year, since then they have ticked up as tech has ticked down off record highs.

Again, this tells us about the state of the market cycle (note where previous extremes were, and how fleeting they ended up being — and how they ultimately resolved).

But it also tells us important investment strategy takeaways such as how passive index investors are now heavily exposed to tech and on the contrary, also have historically low exposure to the diversifying and risk-dampening attributes of defensives.

So this is a timely prompt to consider both the big picture macro-market outlook, but also the pragmatic implications for portfolio strategy (e.g. is this the right sector mix for equity exposure? should you look into smart diversification and up-weighting risk dampeners?)

NOTE: on the topic of Tech Stocks, I strongly encourage you to check out this recent deep-dive on the Outlook for Tech Stocks that we published on

The Weekly ChartStorm

Off-Topic ChartStorm - Tech Stocks

Here’s a quick “Off-Topic ChartStorm” on (US) Tech Stocks…

Read more

3 months ago · 47 likes · 9 comments · Callum Thomas

Bonus Chart 2 — Earnings Weight

For completeness, here’s the earnings version of the market cap chart above, this one shows the earnings weight (or earnings % share) of each of those big 3 sector groups.

We can see that tech boasts the biggest earnings share, but also that cross-checking it against the chart above we can also see that the market has overshot.

Meanwhile, the history of defensives’ earnings weight tells us exactly why they are called defensives — because in times of turmoil and downturn, defensives’ earnings just keep plodding along and become a larger share of the index as tech and cyclicals ex-tech see earnings crunched by crisis, sector boom/bust cycles, and recessions.

So it pays to be cycle aware then think about equity exposure, stock market ups and downs, and overall asset allocation.

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to this [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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What do you think?

Which set of sectors are best placed over the next year or so?

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets update: equities, fixed income, FX

• Defensive Stocks: the downside of the upside in defensives

• Tech Stock Top: look at the risks, bull/bear scenarios, outlook

• Macro Radar: key events, market levels, research agenda

• Ideas Inventory: listing of current live ideas/views

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

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The gloomy macro clouds of the past few years are starting to lift.

Once weak and lagging parts of macro and markets are starting to stir,

and a major macro theme I’ve been tracking is showing increasing signs of finally kicking full-swing into gear — today’s chart lays it out simply.

Basically what we’re looking at here is a procession of policy pivots from big easing in 2020/21, panic tightening in 2022/23, and then back to easing in 2024/25.

The result?

Major monetary tailwinds are kicking-in right now.

And we are seeing this having a clear positive impact on some of the key areas of the global economy that have previously been in deep stagnation: manufacturing, global trade, commodities, heavy industry.

Real world, real growth, traditional cyclical parts of the economy are waking up from slumber (and seemingly taking back charge in relative stock market performance after a decade+ of software and tech domination).

If this is true, and there is plenty of emerging evidence (such as the chart below), then we are likely to see a robust and durable rally in commodities, emerging markets, and traditional cyclicals. The downside is that tech, crypto, and fixed income likely take a back seat in this type of macro environment (and that’s precisely what we’ve seen playing out over the past few months).

So it’s key development, a key theme, with major implications for investors — and something we’re tracking closely (stay tuned for more updates!).

Key point:  Global growth reacceleration is underway.

Bonus Chart — Confidence Revival

With all I discussed above I couldn’t keep this one to myself!

This chart tracks the average z-score (i.e. normalizing each series in terms of where it is tracking vs long-term average so it can be put in common comparable terms) across every country that has consumer and business confidence surveys.

In other words, it is a global barometer of economic confidence.

The first thing to note is how out there in the real world, consumers and businesses have been having a tough time in recent years — while there was no official recession, with the inflation shock, rise in rates, and exhausting (geo)political news/noise flow, we’ve basically been through a confidence recession [albeit others call it a k-shaped economy, stealth recession, vibecession, etc!].

And now, as I noted earlier, the clouds are lifting…

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Poll: what’s your take?

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to this [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Global Equity Technicals: rotation is the key word!

• Macro Radar: key events and technical levels to watch

• Asset Allocation Review: link to monthly pack

• Ideas Inventory: latest listing of live ideas/views/recommendations

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

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The composite positioning indicator below seems to suggests so.

Everyone hates bonds right now.

And fair enough — there are several obvious reasons to hate them.

Returns have been terrible, inflation risk is lurking around the corner, fiscal concerns are running high, and political/governance risk for the US is looking and feeling more like what you’d expect in emerging markets.

But all of this is obvious and well known, which means it’s time to think.

As the old Mark Twain quote goes, "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."

When you take an objective and quantitative look at treasuries (I am referring to longer-term) a couple of things stand out.

Valuations are cheap.

Sentiment/allocations/positioning are deeply consensus bearish.

And support seems to be holding…

To be fair, there are several key and credible risks to treasuries e.g. if we see stronger growth and commodity prices this year (my base case) that’s going to be a headwind for fixed income as bond yields would see upward pressure in that scenario.

But if we see recession and deflation, or just growth scare, or even stock bear — or perhaps a pivot in policy by the Fed to more aggressively lean on mortgage rates by bringing short-term rates down and maybe even leaning on long-term bond yields…. those are a couple of pathways to better returns from the unloved undervalued and underestimated treasuries bucket in fixed income.

Key point:  US Treasuries are unloved and undervalued.

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Further Macro-Market Insights

Here’s a few recent charts from my free “Off-Topic ChartStorm“ series, be sure to check out the original posts for full context and conclusions (+more charts!).

Off-Topic ChartStorm - US Treasuries

“Overall, it’s clear the bond bear market has laid lasting damage to sentiment on bonds. Arguably this has helped created a bullish contrarian setup in waiting. But historical and global perspective suggests some caution, and we await price and macro confirmation as upside catalysts for the bond bull breakout…“ [Full Story + Charts]

As touched on above, we’ve just been through (and technically still are in) one of the worst bond bear markets in recorded history. This is highly important because some of the best opportunities come from the biggest bear markets.

Free Report on US Treasuries

Fixed Income markets in Focus

There’s several key trends, themes, and issues for asset allocators to be considering on the fixed income front (e.g. Japan, credit spreads, volatility, risk, and expected returns), this free report elucidates things with clear commentary and charts. [Full Story + Charts]

But specifically, the chart below lays out how the continued drift higher in the long-term rate of inflation in the USA might make it hard for treasuries to sustainably rally in lieu of a deflationary downturn or crisis/shock. Higher-for-longer risk is non-trivial, especially given the next chart…

Free Report on Fixed Income markets

Bullish Commodities Outlook

There’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks + commodity prices themselves). [Full Story + Charts]

One issue with this though in relation to today’s chart — higher commodity prices and stronger growth = higher inflation = higher-for-longer risk lingers for longer… so it does complicate the outlook for bonds.

Free Report on Commodities Outlook

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Market Themes: commodities, EMFX, and LatAm equities turning up

• Treasuries: examining the bull case and matters of timing

• Inflation Risk: charts and thoughts on inflation risk prospects

• Stocks vs Bonds: weighing the strategic probabilities vs tactical aspects

• Oil/Energy Stocks: upsides vs downsides, emerging opportunity

• Japan Equities: comprehensive look at the bull case in Japan

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Then it broke out —but they said it was still in a downtrend.

Now it’s broken that downtrend line.

And there are still several reasons to expect further upside.

Here’s why I’m bullish on Chinese stocks:

• Strong Technicals: as alluded to, we’ve seen 3 key breakouts (through the 200-day average, through long-term overhead resistance, and through the down trendline joining the last two major peaks).

• Stock/Bond Ratio: we’ve also seen a key breakout in an indicator almost no-one else watches; the Chinese stock/bond ratio (important risk-on signal).

• Cheap Valuations: Chinese stocks are reasonable vs history, cheap vs peers, and cheap vs bonds (very high equity risk premium).

• Macro Tailwinds: we’ve seen a steady drift lower in interest rates, incremental stimulus measures, and now a tentative upturn in the PMIs from quasi-recessionary levels.

• Sentiment: we’re seeing strong retail participation (likely an element of rotation out of languishing property and overheated gold, into stocks), earnings revisions momentum indicators are surging from previous pessimism, and there’s still an air of skepticism among global investors.

So it’s a case of good price and flows momentum, scope for upside in valuations, macro updrafts, and a steady changing of minds as price moves sentiment.

All this adds up to a bullish picture with room to run. It’s also entirely consistent with the bullish outlook for commodities and emerging markets.

Key point:  There’s room to run in China A-Shares’ triple-breakout.

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Further Macro-Market Insights (free to access)

Here’s a few recent charts from my “Off-Topic ChartStorm“ series, be sure to check out the original posts for full context and conclusions.

Bullish Commodities Outlook

There’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks + commodity prices themselves). [Full Story + Charts]

Bullish on Emerging Market Equities

There’s also a growing body of evidence to suggest that we are going through a major bullish inflection point for emerging market equities. Looking at technical developments, macro-fundamentals, behavioral aspects, and other factors — there’s a lot that could go right for EM Equities. [Full Story + Charts]

Calm Before the storm in Fixed Income

There’s a growing set of risks (and opportunities) in fixed income markets. From the paradigm shift in Japan, higher for longer risk in the USA, and changing market structure, to collapsing volatility and tight spreads, there’s several key charts and takeaways investors need to consider here. [Full Story + Charts]

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: global equities, fixed income, FX commodities

• European Equities: update on sentiment and technicals

• US Dollar Outlook: outlining the bear (vs bull) case

• Emerging Markets: a comprehensive look at the key charts, indicators

• China: key charts and indicators for Chinese stocks

• Commodities: clear view on the bullish outlook

• Commodity Equities: bullish on the basket

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

Other Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional research service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

(47 countries just chalked up new highs)

The chart below tracks the weekly count of the 70 countries we track that have closed at their highest point over the trailing 52-week window.

The latest reading is the highest on record, and is comfortably higher than any reading we’ve seen in the post-2008 era.

This is highly significant because the last time we got close to this number (46) was back during the early-2000’s global equity bull market where commodities were booming, emerging markets were making transformative progress, and global stocks were outperforming their US counterparts.

So I would say this latest reading bodes particularly well for global vs US rotation.

Indeed, probably the biggest development of 2025 was the revival of global stocks and inflection point in global vs US relative performance.

And this chart is likely to go down as a harbinger of follow-through on this key theme (bullish global equities and global vs US) as we kick into what is already looking like a very interesting year for macro and markets.

Key point:  Global equities are booming (seeing a surge in new highs).

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Bonus Chart 1 — Monetary Tailwinds

For those who are wondering what’s behind the moves in the chart above, or for those who may be skeptical on technicals, this next chart provides some critical context on what has been a major driver of the global equity bull market.

Aside from global stocks coming off of very cheap valuations (vs their own history and vs US), we have seen a major pivot in global macroeconomic policy settings.

Heading into 2025 there was already a shift towards easing, and then the chaos of H1 (tariff tantrum) triggered a wave of precautionary stimulus in response. This along with a weakening US dollar, rotation flows, and improving macro/earnings pulse has given a firm macro-fundamental backing to the technical developments which I laid out above. This is where you see the most interesting moves in markets: when the technicals, valuations, and macro/fundamentals align. Bullish global equities.

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Global Equities in 2026 — What do you think?

(/how are you positioned? And please feel welcome to add your comments, context, or questions in the comment section…)

(n.b. for those curious, a complete country listing for each basket above can be found here — MSCI Country Classifications) ALSO: n.b. “ex-US = excluding USA“

Be sure to sign up so you can access premium content including exclusive well-rounded ideas spanning risk alerts, investment ideas, and impactful macro insights to help make you a better investor — [ Sign Up Now ]

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: global equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Global Equity Technicals: rotation in play, upside for global equities (ex-US)

• Macro Radar: key events and technical triggers to monitor

• Monthly Asset Allocation Review: link to the latest monthly pack

• Ideas Inventory: all current live/open ideas and views

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional multi-asset research]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

We’ve seen this happen before.

Bond allocations reached major lows at both of the last two major stock market peaks (2000, 2007), and basically served as a bear market harbinger.

Aside from giving clues on the stage of the market cycle, this chart also served as a contrarian bullish indicator for bonds — with treasuries turning in strong double-digit returns after those two big troughs (and doing so while stocks dropped).

So I think this chart says as much about the stage of the market cycle, as it does about the importance of asset allocation (bonds performing their role as diversifiers and risk dampeners), but also about the big bullish setup in bonds in general.

As discussed the other day, bonds have all the makings for a contrarian bullish setup (cheap valuations, bearish sentiment, cycle-low allocations) — and, for now, lack only the technical and macro confirmation (the tactical/timing element).

In other words, don’t dismiss bonds in your asset allocation and portfolio strategy plans — and definitely don’t doubt their role as downside dampeners when the next big downturn comes.

Key point:  Investor allocations to bonds are at an 18-year low.

(n.b. the above chart combines data from the AAII survey, ICI aggregated fund assets, and US Federal Reserve Flow of Funds household accounts dataset)

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Bonus Chart — The 2020’s Treasury Bear Market

Now, some of you might be thinking: hmm yeah, ok, but we just saw bonds crap the bed during the 2022 mini-bear-market; and both stocks AND bonds ended up falling during that episode. Then add to that the fact that bonds are still basically in a bear market, and it would not be at all surprising to see some push back on the above sentiments I espoused.

And that’s actually a big part of the story here.

Investors have been scared and scarred away from treasuries, particularly as stocks have gone from strength to strength. That’s a big reason for why sentiment is so bearish on bonds, and why allocations have been drifted by market movements and active rotation down to the lows highlighted in the chart above.

It’s all part of the process of the market cycle, but I’d also hasten to point out that back in late-2021 my indicators were showing bonds (and stocks) as expensive and inflation risk was rising… in hindsight there were clear clues that bonds would end up being a source of risk rather than a dampener of risk back then.

But now that things have reset, I maintain and reiterate my assessment that bonds have a greater chance of playing their usual diversification and risk dampening role in the portfolio — especially in event of a deflationary downturn (recession).

So a fair bit to think about here, especially given the prevailing consensus…

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week series or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Bonds — What do you think?

(/how are you positioned? And please feel welcome to add your comments, context, critiques or questions in the comment section…)

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Crude Oil Outlook: technicals, key levels, relative value, catalysts

• Treasuries: the big picture setup for bonds

• EM Fixed Income: looking at EM sovereign bonds asset class

• Emerging Market equities: short-term risks vs bigger picture outlook

• LatAm equities: the big bullish setup vs the window of risk

• Defensives: basket of healthcare, utilities, consumer staples

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
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NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional research service]

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• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

Because it just looks too weird.

And that’s the thing: as an analyst, sooner or later you learn (often by making an embarrassing mistake) that if something looks weird — it *is* weird and you probably need to go and find out what error you or someone else made to make it look that weird…

The problem is there’s no error here.

Well, no data error at least.

That weird looking surge in the rolling 12-month net-change in US listed ETFs is genuine. But I am certain that some errors of a different type are going to be seen here when the dust eventually settles from this frantic ETF launch frenzy.

And p.s. here’s a little something this chart doesn’t show: a big portion of ETF launches have been focused on providing “investors“ with the means to undertake highly leveraged bets on an already bubbly looking market.

In other words, this chart is a sentiment signal — a big red flag.

And I must say, if/when we do end up seeing a bubble-bursting-bear, I would not be surprised to see chart counted among the clues listed as we say in hindsight that “there were signs…“

Key point:  There has been a scrambling surge in ETF launches (a sign of the times as speculation, greed, and hype take hold).

In case you missed it…

Check out the latest post from — in this post I take readers through the key levels we need to focus on, short-term buy-signals, longer-term sentiment flags, capex cycles, and some key insights + frameworks for thinking about upside vs downside risk in markets. [ click through to read ]

The Weekly ChartStorm

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - Risk in Focus

Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm…

Read more

6 months ago · 30 likes · 2 comments · Callum Thomas

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts and critical global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service report:

• Global Market Update: key moves in equities, fixed income, FX, commodities.

• US Dollar Technicals: short-term vs medium/long-term outlook, + EM/DM.

• Upsides vs Downsides: complete inventory of risks facing investors right now.

• Inflation Outlook: a look at how and where things are trending.

• Chinese Assets: reviewing property, stocks, and bonds in China.

• Risk-Off Worst-Case: taking stock of key pressure points and risk-flags.

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

For more details on the Topdown Charts entry-level service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

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• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

But here’s an interesting datapoint..

Globally banks are reporting a resurgence in loan demand.

This follows an initial long recovery from the 2022/23 shadow recession and then again rebounding from the tariff-volatility shock earlier this year.

It also lines-up neatly with what I’ve been yabbering on about with the “Global Growth Reacceleration“ theme [as explained in the 2026 Outlook Webinar].

While it is possible to see loan demand increase when firms are facing cash and liquidity pressures (e.g. in early 2020), the much more common driver is increased activity, capacity issues (strong demand), and optimism on the future.

Typically businesses will take out loans to fund long-term expansion-oriented programs e.g. M&A, real estate/premises purchases, investment in plant & equipment, and other growth initiatives.

Not only will they need to prove to the bank their current and anticipated ability to service the loan, but also clearly articulate the anticipated uplift in revenues and cashflow from the investment (and timing thereof).

In other words: it’s a bullish macro sign to see corporate loan demand increasing.

And it’s a contrasting positive sign amongst all the pessimism and negativity that seems to be dominating the discussions lately + definitely interesting as a point of confirmation for a prospective uptick in growth heading into 2026.

Key point:  Loan demand is on the rise: a bullish signal for the growth outlook.

Like this post so far? :-) Please consider sharing it (e.g. forward to a friend/colleague, share on social media, + feel welcome to use the charts in your own work)

Bonus Chart 1 — Funding Conditions

It’s also interesting to track the trends in reported loan demand (chart above) alongside lending standards (whether banks are increasing vs decreasing hurdles and scrutiny for approvals) AND monetary policy rates.

Loan demand typically will fall when economic conditions are poor and uncertainty is high, but also when interest rates are rapidly rising and at levels where the hurdle to return on investment is too high.

But the key takeaway on this second chart is: loan demand is recovering, lending standards are not tightening at any alarming rate, and interest rates are steadily declining — add to that tight credit spreads, and overall its a picture of much improved and generally supportive funding conditions for corporations (good for the growth and investment outlook).

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Bonus Chart 2 — Bank Stocks

Lastly, it’s also worth pointing out the strength we’ve seen in global bank stocks. Breadth across countries is running at a very strong pace, and after retesting its previous big breakout in April, the global bank stock index has now broken out to new all-time highs.

It’s been a long time coming for banks to finally recover to pre-GFC levels, and as I’ve noted with a few other big breakouts we’ve been seeing this year — it follows a long period of ranging and consolidation (and repair/restructure) so it’s a highly significant development.

Very interesting itself as far as the stocks go, but also interesting as another arguably quite positive macro sign and signal here.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other intriguing macro-market issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Market Update: commentary as markets move risk-off

• Commodity Technicals: update on commodities now and into 2026

• Global Lending Standards: trends on bank loan supply/demand

• Credit Spreads (and private credit): where are the risks/opportunity

• Stocks vs Bonds: when is it time to move overweight bonds vs stocks

• Global ex-US Equities: best opportunities are abroad

• GSV vs ULG: Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

(and mostly misunderstood)

By my metrics, Commodities are cheap [and I mean commodities at the asset class level, or specifically the *diversified* GSCI (Light Energy) Commodities Index].

But we all know that cheap can stay cheap, get cheaper, and the usual quip that it might just be cheap for a reason…

So here’s a few reasons why commodities might be one of the most important asset classes to watch into 2026, and why valuations may be more relevant now:

• Valuations: as noted, commodities are cheap by my indicators, and most importantly; the indicator has gone to cheap levels and ticked up off the lows.

• Technicals: the index I mentioned has started to make an initial move on breaking out of its big trading range, off a cyclical base building process, and with bullish breadth divergence.

• Sentiment: aside from gold, investors are still pretty bearish, lightly allocated, and largely unenthusiastic on commodities in general.

• Supply: we have just been through what can only be described as a commodity capex depression, following the big boom-bust super cycle of the 2000’s there was a glut of supply and big drop-off of investment in new supply.

• Thematic Demand: with things like the energy transition, rise of AI and robotics, infrastructure (re)building, space, and geopolitics; there is set to be tremendous demand for industrial metals and energy in the coming years.

• Monetary Conditions: successive global waves of monetary easing present upside risk to cyclical demand + asset prices in general …but also a weaker dollar (bear market in US$ = my view) will help commodities priced in USD.

• Cyclical Demand: as previously outlined, I think there is a good chance we see a global economic reacceleration on the horizon and that’s going to float all boats in the commodity space.

• Inflation Protection: (but) reaccelerating global growth is therefore likely to lead to inflation resurgence, and commodities are intimately interlinked with the inflation story [and provide a direct hedge against inflation risk].

So whether it’s from a macro point of view, an upside opportunity point of view, or even a defensive standpoint — commodities are going to be perhaps *the* key asset class to watch both now and especially into 2026.

Key point:  Commodities are undervalued (with underappreciated upside).

ALERT: 2026 Big Ideas Outlook Webinar

This week Head of Research & Founder of Topdown Charts, Callum Thomas will take you through some of his big charts and big ideas for the global macro/market outlook that are either already in progress or set to become major risks + opportunities into 2026… —[ Register Now ]

Register: 2026 Outlook Webinar

[Webinar is scheduled for EST 2pm Wednesday the 12th of November 2025]

Topdown Around the Web — Other notable charts…

ICYMI, here’s a couple of other interesting charts to check out.

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm: the latest Weekly ChartStorm looked at some key developments in the US stockmarket especially around the AI boom. Of particular note was the rise in semiconductors’ market cap weight, an emerging AI credit boom (and curious rise in Tech Sector CDS pricing as depicted below), euphoric investor sentiment across multiple indicators and data-types, and yet a few points of concern to keep track of…

Read the latest Weekly ChartStorm

The GoldNuggets Digest: the latest edition took a progress check on the gold bull markets, but in particular a focus on gold vs stocks. The chart below tracks the relative return procession —and probably the most interesting development has been the upturn in the gold/stock ratio (key implications for asset allocators given what’s driven some of the past big moves in that line).

Read the latest GoldNuggets Digest

Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Here’s what was covered in the latest entry-level Premium report:

• Global Markets Update: risk assets, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Renewable Energy Stocks: update on the big breakout, outlook

• ESG Investing & Carbon Prices: tracking key trends in this space

• Macro Risk Radar: key events, technicals in the week ahead

• Monthly Pack: link to the latest monthly Asset Allocation Review

• Ideas Inventory: latest live ideas and views (+closed ideas performance)

Subscribe now to get instant access to the latest Premium Report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports AND flow of future ideas…

Subscribe now

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

It’s often initially informed by facts and truths, and rings accurate for a time. But equally often you find that consensus narratives and conventional wisdoms have a use-by date. Their usefulness expires as the facts change (but minds don’t).

Japan is a perfect example of this.

For years Japan has been written-off as a ticking debt & demographics timebomb, a deflation disaster, and the archetype of a mature economy in decline.

But things have changed on multiple fronts and investors have not kept up with the facts …and as such, many have missed the big beautiful breakout in Japanese stocks.

For those who’ve yet to update their fact-base — after decades of stagnation, Japan has seen significant improvements in its economy (e.g. rising labor force participation offsetting demographic headwinds, benefits from friend-shoring, booming jobs growth, surging industrial capex, reviving real estate market, and cyclical upturn [n.b. see bonus chart]).

On top of that for Japanese equities, thanks in big part to Abenomics, there has been a significant improvement in corporate governance and we’ve seen rising profitability, substantial share buyback activity, and as a key litmus test: a breakout to new highs for the Nikkei 225 (it only took 35 years…!).

Meanwhile, foreign investors are still running very light allocations to Japanese stocks, valuations are cheap vs history, vs bonds, vs the upshift in long-term nominal growth, and vs global peers. In short, we’re still early here.

So I say: believe the breakout.

Key point:  Japanese stocks are breaking out and there is room to run.

Like this post so far? :-) Please consider sharing it (e.g. forward to a friend/colleague, share on social media, + feel welcome to use the charts in your own work)

Bonus Chart — The Other Big Breakout…

As I touched on above, there really has been a big shift in the macro/fundamental situation in Japan. It’s one of those classic situations of slowly at first, and then all of a sudden.

Some might not like the “technical analysis“ of Japan’s nominal GDP in the chart below, but the key point and core truth in this chart is that after decades of stagnation and sideways movement, Japan is seeing what can only be described as a *breakout* in its economy.

This is such a significant chart — and perfect pairing to the first chart, because you basically have a situation of twin breakouts… a breakout in price, and a breakout in fundamentals.

And while you can get false breakouts and fake-outs in price, when it’s accompanied by a fundamental improvement, the confidence level goes up.

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week or for more insights: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

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Japanese Equities — What do you think?

(/how are you positioned? And please feel welcome to add your comments, context, critiques or questions in the comment section…)

p.s. Not a Paid Subscriber yet?

Be sure to sign up so you can access premium content including exclusive well-rounded ideas spanning risk alerts, investment ideas, and impactful macro insights to help make you a better investor — [ Sign Up Now ]

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n.b. See below for an overview of what was covered in the latest Premium Report…

Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: key developments across assets/markets

• EM Equity Technicals: big picture moves and major breakouts

• US Dollar Outlook: weighing the short vs longer-term view

• US Treasuries: where-to next for bond yields

• EMFX: update on EM currencies and fixed income

• Japan: believe the big breakouts in Japan

• US Small Caps: updated charts and perspectives on small cap stocks

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

And it’s going to touch every market.

I’m talking about global growth reacceleration.

Specifically what we’re talking about here is the idea that growth picks up pace into 2026 — and I call it reacceleration because while some parts of individual economies and some parts of the global economy have gone into recession or significant slowdown …there hasn’t been a Recession (with a capital R). Just a weird churning middle-porridge of growth cooling off but largely muddling along in the aggregate.

Given the previous peak and decline in inflation rates globally + above-mentioned softening in growth + trade-war risks and wild volatility from earlier this year, we have actually seen a highly significant period of monetary easing around the world.

The breadth and pace of rate cuts globally over the past 2-years has been on a similar scale to that seen during: the early-2000’s dot-com burst/recession; the 2008 financial crisis; and 2020 pandemic. And yet, there hasn’t really been a major crisis or recession this time around, and that’s important…

When you get a non-recessionary-rate-cut-rush like this it can only mean one thing — something glorious is on the horizon.

Global. Growth. Reacceleration.

Key point:  The global rate cut rush of the past 2-years means global growth reacceleration is a key scenario heading into 2026.

Like this post so far? :-) Please consider sharing it (e.g. forward to a friend/colleague, share on social media, + feel welcome to use the charts in your own work)

Bonus Chart 1 — Inflation Resurgence

As you can gather from the above, I believe Reacceleration is the big R need to think about for the global economy heading into 2026. But another big R-word we need to factor in is that of Resurgence.

Inflation Resurgence Risk.

When you consider that we are still finding our feet from the biggest inflation shock in decades and that inflation expectations are as a result still very high and sensitive to any renewed pricing pressures… and then consider that supply chains are still in a state of flux, investment in commodity supply has been in a depression, and capacity is still tight in many areas — it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where reacceleration naturally leads into (inflation) resurgence.

And that’s precisely where the policy path is pointing (chart below).

n.b. If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium macro-market Content.

Subscribe now

Bonus Chart 2 — The Macro Risk Sandwich

But that’s only one possibility, the other macro edge risk —part of what I call the Macro Risk Sandwich— is recession and deflation (the opposite of reacceleration and resurgence). As things stand I think the risk of recession and deflation is very low; there’s no evidence for it right now, and outside of a shock or downside surprise it’s low probability.

But markets already know — at least with respect to industrial metals.

I highlighted in the “10 Charts to Watch in 2025“ that base metals would be the one to let us know which side of the Macro Risk Sandwich it’s going to be, and much in line with what I talked about above: they’re telling us it’s beginning to look a lot like Reacceleration.

On that note, the market implications of reacceleration (+resurgence) is most likely going to be the following: upside for commodities, traditional cyclical stocks, and global/emerging market equities… while bonds and long-duration growth/tech stocks could get rattled if it all unfolds fast and furious (especially on the inflation front).

So it’s a very interesting and important prospect to ponder.

Global Economic Pathways 2026 — what do you think?

p.s. Not a Paid Subscriber yet?

Be sure to sign up so you can access premium content including exclusive well-rounded ideas spanning risk alerts, investment ideas, and impactful macro insights to help make you a better investor — [ Sign Up Now ]

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: global equity technicals, rates, commodities

• REITs & CRE: technical update on REITs and the reset in CRE prices

• Chinese Stocks: update on A-shares and Chinese tech stocks

• US Tech Stocks: pulse check on fundamentals, valuations, technicals

• Energy Sector: crude oil price outlook, energy sector equities

• Defensives: looking at healthcare, utilities, consumer staples

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

Subscribe now

For more details on the service check out the following resources:

• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

What did you think of this note?

(feel free to reply/comment if you had specific feedback or questions)

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

• Topdown Charts Entry-Level Service —[entry-level version]

• Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm —[US Equities in focus]

• Monthly Gold Market Pack —[Gold charts]

• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

You might think that run is overdone, but this week’s chart suggests otherwise.

One of the key principles in market analysis is: “when in doubt, just zoom out“ …and the big picture here leaves little doubt as to what’s happening in emerging markets.

The MSCI Emerging Markets (US$) index is on the cusp of breaking out in absolute terms (from almost 20-years of stagnation/range-trading) AND is turning the corner in relative terms (after undergoing a 15-year relative bear market).

I want to pause and dwell on something there for a second…

We all know about the traditional garden variety ”bear market” —for example, what US stocks did in the years following the dot com bubble peak (i.e. the early-2000’s). It’s characterized by a market where price trends down, usually in a substantial manner and over a prolonged period …it becomes a case of sell the rip instead of buy the dip (basically the opposite of a bull market).

But you can also get 2 other types of bear market:

Relative Bear Markets: this is illustrated well in the chart below, it’s when one asset or market consistently trends down vs another asset — this is why I noted that emerging markets have been in a long-term relative bear market vs developed markets (and it actually followed a roaring relative bull market during the 2000’s).

Stealth Bear Markets: the traditional bear market is one where price corrects through time and space (price goes down in space on the chart over time), but the stealth bear market corrects mostly through time as price stays rangebound. It makes investors give up (allocations and flows drop-off), sees price lag behind fundamentals (valuations fall to cheap levels), and often happens while a period of restructuring and reform happens in the background (as most often this type of market happens following a big and unsustainable bull market).

We care about bear markets because yes: they can be destructive to portfolios during the process, but perhaps more importantly is the point that historically some of the biggest bull markets and buying opportunities emerge in their wake.

In that sense, being that we see both a (15-year) relative bear market (the black line), and a (nearly 20-year) stealth bear market (the blue line) …I would argue that this is precisely why the bull case for EM now is so interesting. And this is not just conceptual, we have seen those background adjustments actually take place: investor allocations to EM are at rock bottom, valuations are cheap, and macro/fundamentals have been slowly changing for the better.

While there have been false dawns before, I think we need to pay very close attention to this chart, because what looks to be getting underway here could easily be the beginning of a new multi-year cycle. Something of generational significance for long-term investors and asset allocators.

Key point:  EM equities are at a long-term bullish inflection point.

Like this post so far? :-) Please consider sharing it (e.g. forward this email to a friend, colleague, client, or family member, share it on social media + feel welcome to use the charts in your own work)

Bonus Chart 1 — USA vs The World

The inflection point underway in EM vs DM actually echoes a larger theme of US stocks starting to run out of steam vs the rest of the world.

A key part of the flipside of the EM vs DM relative bear market is the long-term and massive relative bull market in US vs Global stocks. But to echo the comments from above, the thing about long-running and overhyped bull markets is that they start for good reason and end when things become unreasonable e.g. valuations become stretched and set an improbable high bar for future performance, investors become giddy and overallocate to that market, and the underlying fundamental story reaches maturity (and ultimately becomes unsustainable).

In other words: the USA is towards the end of its cycle, while EM is arguably just at the beginning stages of its cycle.

If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe to the [free] Chart Of The Week or better yet: Upgrade to Paid for Premium Content.

Subscribe now

Bonus Chart 2 — Global Equity Valuations

And finally, just to illustrate with data some of the points around market cycles and valuations… This chart shows the price to 10-year average trailing earnings (smooths out the sometimes highly distorted picture from just 12-month trailing) aka PE10 ratio for the USA and the average reading across the countries in Developed, Emerging, and Frontier markets.

Zooming out you can see the clear cycles of boom and bust (and the risks + opportunities in absolute terms), but also the convergence and divergence across those groups over time as international investing grew in popularity and then got cast to the wayside.

With one glance you can get a fairly good feel for where the longer-term risks and opportunities are here (and probably unsurprising given the previous charts). I can’t help but think how interesting the next decade in global equities is going to be, especially coming from this starting-point context.

Global Equities — what do you think? (/how are you positioned in portfolios)

Not a paid subscriber yet? Be sure to sign up so you can access premium content including exclusive well-rounded ideas spanning risk alerts, investment ideas, and impactful macro insights to help make you a better investor - [ Sign Up ]

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Market Update: commentary on stocks, rates, FX, commodities

• US Treasury Technicals: tactical update on bond yield outlook

• Global Policy Pulse: tracking the big shift in monetary policy

• Commodities: outlook for commodity prices (in aggregate)

• Emerging Markets: updated charts/views on EM equities

• Updated Ideas Inventory: current live ideas/views, and past performance

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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

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Value vs Growth Stocks: new lows, further extremes…

(p.s. skip to the end if you just want the bullet point summary + conclusion)

Checking in on US value vs growth, the relative price lines have drifted lower toward new all-time lows. We see this on both a price-only and total return basis; with price-only straying further and further from trend, and the relative total return line well below long-term average.

These extremes are echoed in the valuation trends picture, with the discount between the cheapest vs the most expensive parts of the market still much steeper than usual – which is quite interesting to reflect on, as for much of history this indicator has ranged around -40-45% …so this is unusual.

In passing it’s also interesting to see the different echelons of price-to-book ratio, with the most expensive parts of the market both more expensive than usual vs the cheap parts and more expensive than usual vs their own history.

Looking at US value vs growth, the big sector weight skews are basically tech on the growth side, and cyclical (financials and energy) + defensive (healthcare, staples, utilities) on the value side. We can see that the recent push lower in the value vs growth relative price lines have been driven by both cyclical and defensive value losing ground against the ever hotter tech sectors. And as such, the relative value discounts have been driven deeper still for both groups.

Lastly, on the global front it’s a mixed picture. The MSCI ACWI value vs growth line has broken down to new relative lows, and breadth of value vs growth across countries is clearly weakening.

Initially EM value vs growth had been trending higher, but has also peaked and rolled over. But developed markets have seen better performance (albeit partly due to better performance from financials and less exposure to growth-tech). And on that last point, it goes to show that value vs growth relative performance (and relative value) is highly sector-driven, and that we will thus either need to see tech top or value sectors gain to turn things around here.

In Summary…

• US value vs growth relative performance lines have broken down to new all-time lows, with the price-only line stretched well below trend, and total return well below long-term average.

• These extremes are echoed in the valuation trends picture, with the discount between the cheapest vs the most expensive parts of the market still much steeper than usual (and the most expensive parts much more expensive than usual vs their own history). This is an unusual phenomenon and tells us as much about the state of value vs growth as the stockmarket cycle as a whole.

• The biggest sector skews in US value vs growth are defensives (healthcare, staples, utilities) + cyclicals (energy, financials) on the value side, and tech on the growth side. Both groups have seen very weak relative performance, and hence widening relative value discounts opening up.

• Overall these observations point to both opportunity for value to potentially rebound vs growth, but also pressure points and distortions opening up in the market. Ultimately if value is to rebound vs growth it’s going to be sector driven.

Bottom line: US value vs growth has reached new all-time lows as further extremes in valuation drive large relative value gaps; the global picture is not much better (but reiterates the sector factor).

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets Update: stocks, bonds, FX, commodities commentary.

• Credit Spreads & Volatility: taking stock of the latest flare-up in volatility.

• EM Fixed Income: outlook for EM government bonds asset class.

• Value vs Growth: reviewing pressure points, risks, opportunities.

• Agri Commodities: looking at upside risks in agri commodity prices.

• Frontier Markets: going neutral from bullish on valuations/technicals.

• LatAm Equities: going neutral from bullish on technicals, risk window.

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Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
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Follow me on Twitter
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NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

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• Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]

But don’t ignore this big breakout.

As I mentioned earlier this year, there are several factors lining up for “MEEGA“ [Make European Equities Great Again] — still cheap valuations, lingering excess pessimism, monetary tailwinds, political drift to the right/business-friendly governments, reforms program, fiscal stimulus, and the prospect of global growth reacceleration into 2026.

But above all, this week’s chart shows a big beautiful breakout to new All-Time Highs (only took 25 years(!!)).

I’ve recently documented several other big breakouts currently underway (e.g. developed market ex-US equities, emerging markets equal-weighted index, China tech stocks, global commodity stocks, and global renewable energy stocks) — so this one has good company, and I always say when you get a clean clear breakout like this after such a prolonged period of base-building you have to pay attention and it’s anyone’s guess as to how far it goes.

This is the time when you need to think independently, ignore the old consensus narratives & common wisdoms, and pay more attention to what price is telling us and what’s not being talked about…

Key point:  European equities have broken out to new all-time highs (after 25 years).

What do you think?

Bonus Chart - Further Perspective…

Another interesting angle on it is the CPI adjusted EURO STOXX 50 which —while looking less impressive than the chart above— has likewise undertaken a fairly compelling breakout also (albeit a very long way to go until new ATH on this one).

The Stoxx50 vs SP500 view is less impressive still with the relative strength line still bouncing along the bottom.

Overall, with the CPI adjusted + relative strength picture still looking early, sentiment still middling, and valuations (particularly relative value) still cheap, I would say there is plenty of room to run here in the chart above.

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• Global Markets Update: equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• European Equity Technicals: update on ATH, outlook

• Macro Radar: key events and markets to monitor in the week ahead

• Monthly Pack: link to monthly asset allocation review

• Ideas Inventory: current live (and closed) ideas/views

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Hidden Bonus Chart… 👀 🤫

Only for the gentlemen and scholars who scrolled all the way to the end — this last one goes to show that European Equities used to be at least as good as US Equities.

But something(s) changed in 2009.

One issue was that Europe had to deal with the hangover from the credit boom, with rolling sovereign debt crises and structurally lower growth as it digested years of malinvestment and deleveraging.

The USA on the other hand saw a decade+ of super-easy monetary policy + struck “tech stock oil” (and actual oil with the shale boom, and now “AI oil”). While it’s hard to see the USA coming unstuck or Europe striking its own oil, the thing to keep in mind is that the narrative and story usually only becomes obvious after price has moved… (a good final thought to muse on!)

But there’s one key thing you must know about the most common strategies.

Most investors buy market cap-weighted indexes.

This essentially involves buying more of the largest companies and less of the smallest companies, and over time buying more of the companies that grow (and selling out of or rebalancing from companies that decline).

The good thing about cap-weighted index investing is it automatically allocates more money over time to the best stocks (and takes from the worst ones).

The bad thing about cap-weighted index investing is it automatically allocates more money over time to the best stocks (and takes from the worst ones).

This week’s chart shows both of these aspects in action…

The average cap-weighted index investor today is heavily allocated to Tech and running record low allocations to Defensives. This is a great allocation for bull markets and uptrends, but it’s an increasingly risky portfolio should a downcycle take hold.

One of the key reasons investors get into index funds, aside from being easy and profitable (at least over the past [exceptionally good] 15-years) — is the instant diversification it offers.

Buying the index is a cheap and easy way to set up a diversified portfolio (and all good finance nerds know that diversification is one of the rare true free-lunches in investing [by lowering risk/volatility relative to return]).

But in times like these where you have a very sector-driven bull/boom/bubble underway, market cap-weighted strategies can end up becoming very undiversified and lop-sided very quickly [as you can see in the chart below].

So what? Three possible actions + one key insight come to mind:

• Equal-Weighted Index: one way to correct this is to switch from cap-weighted to equal-weighted indexes, this avoids the clear tendency seen in the chart below for sector weights to skew (sometimes wildly) over time, but leaves you overexposed to declining companies and underexposed to growth companies.

• Active Allocation: another way is to tactically make sector tilts when major extremes are reached (about once per decade in the chart below) and when confirming evidence aligns [for example raising exposure to defensives as risk signals begin to light up …as they are starting to now].

• Asset Allocation: another way of dealing with it is to simply ignore it and accept that at times your equity exposure will get skewed into what looks like a risky setup such as that seen now, but correct this at the portfolio level by including uncorrelated/defensive assets like gold, bonds, commodities, cash, hedges, or other alternatives (or even looking further afield across global stock markets, e.g. those which are at different stages of the market cycle) to guard against downside risk and smoothen the ride.

• Market Cycles — the Signal it’s sending: the other point to note is that this chart also tells us about the state of the market cycle itself. Major skews in the chart below have almost always occurred at or around key turning points (for example big skews to defensives around market bottoms, big skews into tech/cyclicals around market peaks). In that respect this week’s chart is waving a bit of a risk flag for the stockmarket in general right now.

So it’s an interesting chart by itself, but the implications for investors are equally interesting in terms of real practical portfolio strategy aspects but also in terms of reading the tea leaves of the market cycle.

Key point:  The US stockmarket has become heavily skewed into tech stocks and much less exposed to defensives; making it overall a more aggressive/risky and less-diversified portfolio than usual.

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Bonus Chart 1 — Earnings Share

For completeness it is important to acknowledge the shifting sands in *earnings* weights over time — this chart is basically the same method as above but looks at the proportion of S&P500 earnings attributed by each of the super sectors.

The defensives line is interesting as those sectors just plod along and get crowded out by growth stocks during economic booms …and gain ground back + then some during downturns as defensives continue to plod along and everyone else falls on hard times.

The other interesting thing is that we can clearly see how things are different this time from the dot-com-days as tech earnings weight has reached a record high — in part justifying the high market cap …it’s just that the cap-weight has overshot the earnings weight (and defensives cap-weight has undershot).

And that brings us to the next bonus chart and a key tactical insight…

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Bonus Chart 2 — Tech & Defensives RV

In what is basically an output from the previous two charts, this one shows the Relative Value premium/discount for tech and defensives.

Tech is trading at a massive Premium vs non-tech.

Defensives are trading at the largest relative value Discount since the peak of the dot com bubble.

So just to clarify: Tech — which has the highest weight in the index, is the most expensive, and Defensives — which have the lowest weight in the index, is the cheapest on a relative value basis.

And yes, this is indeed a market cycle signal and sign of the times… but it also raises the urgency and evidence to address the issues discussed in the first part of this week’s note.

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some intriguing global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Markets review: equities, fixed income, FX, commodities

• Technical risk check: monitoring early warning signals

• Emerging Markets update: long/medium-term vs short-term charts

• Macro Radar: key events/data and levels to monitor this week

• Quarterly Pack: access to the latest slide deck (Q4 + 2026 outlook)

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• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

• About (key features and benefits of the service)

But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

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1. Stock/Bond Ratio: All the warning signs are there…

(p.s. skip to the end if you just want the bullet point summary + conclusion)

Sentiment & Technicals: While we did see a sharp correction in the stock/bond ratio back in April, this has since been unwound with a big rebound. But momentum is now fading as bonds begin to make a come back of sorts.

On the technicals, 2 points of note are the higher high in the index vs lower high in relative sentiment (and rolling over from bullish levels), and lower highs in stock/bond ratio vs its 200-day moving average (i.e. fading momentum).

These are early warning risk flags.

Macro: The other recent development of note for this theme is the tick up in the unemployment rate (and likely further upside if the historical linkage with the yield curve is anything to go by), and general softness in the labor market.

Of course, the real signal here is “recession: yes or no” – which is a lot of what it all comes down to when trying to guess the path of the stock/bond ratio (and hence its importance in active asset allocation).

Valuations: In the background meanwhile, valuations also caution of the potential for a peak: stocks are expensive outright, bonds are cheap outright (and turning up), and stocks are expensive relative to bonds – the combination of this and the macro/technical warning signs make it begin to become a bit more tactically relevant.

Long-Term Perspective & Cycles: Meanwhile zooming out to the strategic level, the rolling realized 10-yr equity risk premium is looking stretched vs long-term average and cyclically well-aged.

Asset Allocation Strategy: The prospective equity risk premium (based on expected returns) is negative, and the ERP indicator from the Shiller data continues to track around 20-year lows.

All the warning signs are there, and we need to be paying closer attention to opportunities in bonds and risks in stocks, with the next logical step for asset allocators being a switch to underweight stocks, overweight bonds.

In Summary…

• Sentiment & technicals are waving downside risk flags for the US stock/bond ratio (bearish divergences: higher high on the index vs lower highs in relative sentiment and price momentum, and relative sentiment rolling over from the highs).

• Macro risk flags are also waving (weakening jobs market, higher unemployment rate; and prospect of it going higher based on the yield curve).

• Valuations also highlight the potential for a peak in the stock/bond ratio (stocks are expensive, bonds cheap, stocks expensive vs bonds).

• Bigger picture, the rolling 10-yr realized equity risk premium is stretched vs long-term average, and well-aged in the cycle; and forward-looking equity risk premium indicators point to negative/poor ERP going forward.

Bottom line: Seeing multiple warning signs for a downturn in the stock/bond ratio (sentiment, technicals, macro, valuations, and long-term cycles/strategic perspectives).

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While the above piece came from our full service over at , see below for what we covered here in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Global Market Update: global equities, rates, FX, commodities

• Stock/Bond Ratio: big picture asset allocation call

• Treasuries: looking at the case for bonds specifically

• Global vs US: absolute and relative return outlook for global equities

• Crude Oil (and Energy Stocks): weighing up the outlook here

• Commodity Equities: examining the breakout, value case, and outlook

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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

• Topdown Charts Professional —[institutional service]

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That’s what many are starting to argue, and some of you asked me what I reckon so here’s a couple of charts + things to consider.

The main thing is US small cap stocks as a group look cheap vs history, cheap vs large caps, under-owned, underrepresented, underappreciated, and undergoing some very interesting tactical developments recently…

Here’s what I’m looking at on the bull case:

• Valuations: small caps are cheap vs large caps (see chart below), cheap vs history (currently rebounding off levels lower than the 2020 trough), and cheap vs bonds (small caps Equity Risk Premium is still at healthy levels).

• Sentiment: despite the recent interest, this year has seen massive outflows from small cap equity funds (+very low allocations) and near-record short futures positioning (short squeeze anyone?).

• Macro: small caps are likely to benefit from lower interest rates (Fed set to kick-off a second round of rate cuts next week), but also ironically a global growth reacceleration would also help (small cap stock indexes have more traditional cyclicals, less tech vs large cap stock indexes), and as shown further below: small cap earnings revisions have been surging recently.

• Technicals: small caps have seen improving breadth, established a solid uptrend off the April tariff-tantrum lows, and are currently making a run on a major overhead resistance point (it will be Big if Small caps break through!).

So it’s a fairly compelling setup.

The key risks would be a possible recession in the USA, but if it ends up being short and shallow and features significant rate cuts and fiscal stimulus it could turn out to be net-positive.

That said, a deeper recession and equity bear market would be problematic for absolute returns… but given the stretched valuations and froth in large caps (notably big tech and the AI hype); you might see large caps fall further and faster —and small caps outperforming on a relative basis (albeit maybe by simply falling less than their large cap peers).

The key things to watch in the immediate term will be: follow-through in earnings revisions momentum, technicals (breakout = big bulls, however failure to breakout will be problematic), and macro (rate cuts support vs recession downside risk …and reacceleration risk on the upside).

But this is not the only interesting chart, the next chart shows another element in the strategic bull case for small caps… (scroll down)

Key point:  Small caps look cheap, under-owned, and tactically attractive.

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Bonus Chart 1 — Investor Allocations

This chart shows just how far out of favor small caps are.

Through a combination of portfolio drift (market movements) and active allocations (fund flows), US investors are running record low allocations to small cap ETFs.

But here’s the kicker: it just ticked up.

As far as contrarian signals go, that’s as good as it gets. When you see a sentiment/positioning indicator go to an extreme and then tick up, that’s the most powerful signal you can get. So another support to the bull case here.

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Bonus Chart 2 — The Tactical Element

And as mentioned earlier, another key component of the tactical outlook has been the resurgent earnings revisions indicator (which combines the smoothed signal from changes in aggregate forward earnings estimates and the breadth of positive vs negative earnings revisions).

Again, this is an excellent shape.

Seeing an indicator like this plunge (back in April during the depths of tariff despair), and then turn back up again and go positive is a strong bullish signal.

SURVEY …what do you reckon?

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Here’s a brief snapshot of what we covered in the latest Premium Content report for subscribers of the Topdown Charts Entry-Level service:

• Global Markets Update: global equities, rates, FX, commodities

• Treasuries in Focus: update on technicals for US + global govt bonds

• Macro Radar: key events and technicals to note in the week ahead

• Monthly Pack: link to monthly Asset Allocation Review

• Ideas Inventory: listing of latest/live ideas, views, recommendations

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Other free research notes by

Check out these other recent free reports & charts we published this week.

Chart: AUDUSD Next Steps

• Considering the overlooked upside case for the Aussie dollar… [Read More]

The GoldNuggets Digest — Gold, Fiscal, Bonds

• Documenting the global gold breakout, coiling spring in commodities, fiscal tailwinds for gold, gold vs bonds (price), gold vs bonds (valuations)… [Read More]

Also, on a closely related note to this week’s chart, ICYMI check out the Chart Of The Week post from a few weeks ago…

Chart of the Week - The Best vs Worst

• The “Relative Value Trinity” in global equities… [read more]

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

Follow me on Twitter
Connect on LinkedIn

NEW: Services by Topdown Charts

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And I don’t just mean the weather.

Although you might say this week’s chart *is* about the weather (of markets!)

We’re talking seasonal price patterns… but before you hit delete on this, please note: today’s chart does offer a truly different perspective on things.

I’m sure by now you’ve seen dozens of stockmarket seasonality charts (including from myself over at the Weekly ChartStorm!) — but I’m here today to tell you about how pervasive seasonal trends are across asset classes, and how there’s a bit more to using seasonality signals than you might think...

Long story short, we see a clear tendency for: downside in risk assets, increased volatility, and upside in defensive assets right around this time of the year.

That means, if we knew nothing else, and there was no other information… all-else-equal over the Sep/Oct period you would want to have a preference for defensive assets and a bearish bias on risk assets.

That’s the short story.

But let’s consider some nuance on this.

Firstly, what even is seasonality? >> It’s very simply an average of price movements across the calendar year, over a period of history (most often calculated using the maximum/longest available historical data).

In that sense it is a statistical description of what happened in the past (clue 1) —on average (clue 2).

There’s a couple of reasons for care and thoughtfulness here: the first clue is that it’s about what happened in the past… and we can look at the past, learn from the past, try draw inference from the past: but today’s history is still being written. Things can change.

The other thing is, we’re dealing with averages here, and averages contain outliers, but also if it is actually close to normally distributed then we know that about half of the time the experience was better and half the time it was worse than the average.

What does this mean?

It means, understand and be aware of seasonal tendencies, but don’t rely on them… AND — Know how to incorporate them into a coherent process.

I always say you should look at seasonality from 2 specific angles:

1. Prompting Information: as a prompt to look closer (e.g. right now we would be paying particular attention to anything that confirms the seasonal trend such as worsening macro data, technical risk flags, value/sentiment extremes) — in other words, if the seasonality says watch out for downside risks, then you’d pay more attention to risk management and look for warning signs and bearish setups; or

2. Confirming Information: as a piece of confirming or conviction building evidence upon an existing and sound thesis (e.g. if you were already tactically bearish on risk assets or bullish on defensive assets, you would be looking at today’s chart as something to build on that existing case and maybe raise your conviction —and thereby lower threshold to action or increase sizing).

So in that sense by thinking it through a little further we can actually dig into some of the most fundamental principles of market analysis and investment strategy. So it’s a whole lot more than just fun with charts and stats.

Ultimately though, I think if I managed to make you ponder on process and strategy today (as well as the actual chart), then I can probably count this as a decent post.

Key point:  Seasonal crosswinds are coming to a head across asset classes.

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Bonus Chart 1 — Stockmarket Seasonality Map

For completeness, here’s the stockmarket seasonality map I mentioned.

As you can see, it’s around this time of year that price tends to be more ranging and volatile with a tendency for downside in stocks and chance of volatility spikes.

But also — let’s not forget about the good old YER [Year-End Rally]. As far as upside opportunities go, maybe the best thing that could happen would be a nice healthy seasonal correction to setup for a YER to close out what has already been an eventful year…

Bonus Chart 2 — Pressure Points

Now to lean a little further into the bearish side and examine the “what could go wrong?“ aspect (and p.s. I also like to ask and challenge people to think of the opposite question: “what could go right?“ …you always see people dooming it up for engagement on social media with the first question, but rarely the second).

The key thing that could go wrong, and not just tactically/short-term, would be that we get a typical seasonal spike in volatility and significant sell-off in risk assets… arising at a time when US assets are collectively still trading near record highs (and higher than both the dot com bubble peak + subprime credit boom peaks).

There are very clear pressure points that could get triggered off if the right (wrong) combination of things were to happen.

I’m not trying to call a bubble top or peak or anything, but I think we need to be conscious of these critical background features and realities of today’s markets — both on a larger long-term cycles standpoint, and in the more immediate tactical seasonal swings aspect.

It’s about pragmatism.

p.s. Reminder to subscribe if you haven’t already (n.b. you can sign up for the free Chart of the Week — or get weekly + monthly global macro/asset allocation ideas and insights with the premium service)

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Topics covered in our latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and dug into some very timely global macro & asset allocation issues in our latest entry-level service weekly report:

• Defensives: tactical update on defensive stocks

• Property: as look at risks and forces shaping housing market.

• REITs: reviewing the outlook for US/global REITs.

• Japan: the big changes underway in Japanese equities.

• US Small Caps: documenting the unique setup in smalls.

• Global Banks: a big breakout and some big value discounts.

Subscribe now to get instant access to the report so you can check out the details around these themes + gain access to the full archive of reports + flow of ideas.

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• Getting Started (how to make the most of your subscription)

• Reviews (what paid subscribers say about the service)

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But if you have any other questions definitely get in touch.

And if you would like a greater level of depth and detail + access, check out our Institutional Service for the full reports: Topdown Charts Professional

Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

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