Chart Of The Week - Emerging Pivot?

This week a focus on Emerging Markets (EM equities, fixed income, EMFX, China, + frontier), also a look at treasury yield trajectory and market status check...

Jan 24, 2023

This email gives you a brief overview of what was covered in the latest Weekly Insights report including of course, the Chart Of The Week.

Check out the full archives of the Chart Of The Week for more charts.

Chart of the Week - Emerging Markets Fixed Income

EM Pivot Pricing: This one is worth highlighting because of how it relates to the opportunity in EM fixed income, but also from a macro standpoint in terms of what it is saying about the path of monetary policy.

Basically what it is saying is that the bond market is starting to price pivot for EM central banks, and certainly we’ve noticed the pace and breadth of rate hikes across EM central banks has started to slow down.

Could be a key theme for macro and EM equities in particular this year — and something a bit under the radar as everyone else is still obsessing about Fed pivot!

Key point: The bond market is beginning to price pivot for EM.

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Topics covered in the latest Weekly Insights Report

Aside from the chart above, we looked at several other charts, and basically put together a special edition on Emerging Markets this week:

EM Equities: analysis of past bear markets in EM equities, and what’s next.
China Macro/Equities: policy outlook, equity risk/return drivers.
EMFX: outlook for EM currencies — a key part of the equation.
EM Fixed Income: revisiting the opportunity in EM bonds.
Frontier Markets: not just EM equities, but also FM equities!
Treasuries Trajectory: reviewing tactical indicators bond yields.
Market Update: shifts in risk sentiment and sources of upside.

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Thanks for your interest. Feedback and thoughts welcome.

Sincerely,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder at Topdown Charts

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