Monthly Asset Allocation Review - June 2023
Review of markets and succinct guide to risk vs return outlook across asset classes
This email provides a look at some of the key outputs of our Market Cycle Guidebook — giving you a clear snapshot of our thinking on asset allocation.
Specifically, covered in this email is:
Global data pulse, policy monitor, valuation snapshot
Global economy and risk outlook
Core views across asset classes (short + medium term)
Capital market assumptions update (i.e. longer-term)
This email report is aimed at an active asset allocator audience, but should be useful to most investors in terms of providing a big picture perspective on the macro and market outlook.
n.b. Making the Most of Topdown Charts (video on how to read/interpret the reports + how to practically use the insights in your investments)
Monthly Asset Allocation Review - June 2023
Topdown foreword: The first half of the year saw US large caps come out on top despite a series of concerning events, government bonds meanwhile were uninspiring, and commodities negative. As we head into the second half of the year, we’re met with mixed macro, negative seasonality, lingering risks, but also a new mania triggered by AI hype and a coming full circle of investor sentiment from extreme bearish to now increasingly extreme bullish. With recession risk looming, the asset allocation framework continues to favour defensive assets (albeit with some nuance).
Global Business Cycle Macroscope