Another thing this raises is the point that once it becomes clear that growth is holding up and even improving (+inflation upside risks surfacing) --- central banks might need to quickly reverse course. So I would look for more and more pauses on easing + eventual outright reversal to rate hikes [but that's likely a later-2026 story].
And yes, that means the Fed is probably done with rate cuts (with today's -25bp cut likely being the last step in this easing cycle).
Another thing this raises is the point that once it becomes clear that growth is holding up and even improving (+inflation upside risks surfacing) --- central banks might need to quickly reverse course. So I would look for more and more pauses on easing + eventual outright reversal to rate hikes [but that's likely a later-2026 story].
And yes, that means the Fed is probably done with rate cuts (with today's -25bp cut likely being the last step in this easing cycle).
Let's hope this is how it plays out. It's been goddamn depresssing to be a consumer discretionary investor
very much mixed times in commodity stocks (ex-gold) too