Nice charts but I strongly suggest you include weekly jobless claims because this is the best indicator of the strength in the labor, and the strength of the US labor market has exceeded the consensus forecast by a significant amount.
Weekly jobless claims are hard data and will reflect where the labor market is after a few weeks of data. Following the 4 week moving average is recommended. I am dumbfounded that nobody in the market is following this trusted indicator. It’s way to low at present to support sentiment or other survey data that suggest the labor market is going into recession. Keep in mind that I have 50 years experience is market and economic analysis. My guess is that mains Investors have shifted their focus to this soft data and are being fooled by it.
A really nice thread. I might add a chart of "How much thought people give their investments". A logarithmic decline since 2009. Buy the dip, long growth, they all keep working (until they don't).
yeah real estate's sweet spot is where bond yields/interest rates drop, but the fundamentals pertaining to RE e.g. occupancy etc, don't deteriorate fast enough to offset such a tailwind
I find the first chart w/ the monetary conditions. Stocks (at least larger-cap) able to rally despite the headwind.
With a growing number of central banks cutting, and the Fed looking to join them, could monetary conditions start improving from a depressed level and start becoming a tailwind?
The issue is worth considering however it soared to 80% during COVID and is close to the norm for an economy not in recession. Therefore, I take this economists view with a large grain of salt.
Nice charts but I strongly suggest you include weekly jobless claims because this is the best indicator of the strength in the labor, and the strength of the US labor market has exceeded the consensus forecast by a significant amount.
Thanks, noted -- albeit the consumer + small business surveys have done a decent job of describing labor market conditions
Weekly jobless claims are hard data and will reflect where the labor market is after a few weeks of data. Following the 4 week moving average is recommended. I am dumbfounded that nobody in the market is following this trusted indicator. It’s way to low at present to support sentiment or other survey data that suggest the labor market is going into recession. Keep in mind that I have 50 years experience is market and economic analysis. My guess is that mains Investors have shifted their focus to this soft data and are being fooled by it.
Interesting perspective on claims: https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1749637756794376516
(albeit while level is likely less useful, momentum probably still matters)
Thanks Waldo, I appreciate your insights, will take a closer look
A really nice thread. I might add a chart of "How much thought people give their investments". A logarithmic decline since 2009. Buy the dip, long growth, they all keep working (until they don't).
Thanks, indeed, Pavlovian conditioning is a heck of a thing
Real estate...supposing your deflationary scenario comes to pass presumably people will be out of work...so ?
yeah real estate's sweet spot is where bond yields/interest rates drop, but the fundamentals pertaining to RE e.g. occupancy etc, don't deteriorate fast enough to offset such a tailwind
thanks. If prices are set at the margins though, might not take many layoffs to trigger a real slide
Thank you excelente saludos
cheers!
Nice chart report!
I find the first chart w/ the monetary conditions. Stocks (at least larger-cap) able to rally despite the headwind.
With a growing number of central banks cutting, and the Fed looking to join them, could monetary conditions start improving from a depressed level and start becoming a tailwind?
Absolutely, and monetary conditions are likely to turn to become a net tailwind in 2025, but at this point 2024 has already been written...
The issue is worth considering however it soared to 80% during COVID and is close to the norm for an economy not in recession. Therefore, I take this economists view with a large grain of salt.